I initially thought about putting this together after getting really mad at the panic generated by the Washington snipers. The Thursday November 7th NPR interview by Diane Rehm of David Ropeik spurred me to actually do it.
I know the list is coldly clinical (and highly vulnerable to criticism), but irrational fear is to be fought on all fronts. I confess that in the middle of the sniper affair I was a little creeped out by standing at the sink at night, feeling that I had cross-hairs on my forehead, especially knowing that the snipers had driven within 5 miles of my house several times. But such is human psychology.
What would be interesting is a cross-tabulation of relative risks, so it would be easy to see that dying from heart disease is about 24 times more likely than dying from a gunshot, about 140 times more likely than dying from food poisoning, and about 33,000 times more likely than contracting West Nile virus.
I'd also like to see a listing of how much money is spent on prevention of each of the items in the list, and then be able to list a "distortion" factor showing how public perception drives the political system to fund prevention of highly improbable events. But such is human psychology, and the price of comfort. Now, back to washing the dishes at my well-lit sink, facing the forest behind my house.
Annualized risk of:
- Being obese: 1:6
- Being an overweight child: 1:7
- Suffering a serious non-fatal injury: 1:9
- Engaging in excessive drinking: 1:15
- Injuring yourself in a fall: 1:37
- Being injured by a falling object: 1:55
- Being injured in a motor vehicle accident: 1:82
- Injuring yourself through overexertion: 1:85
- Suffering an unintentional cut or piercing: 1:116
- Dying from Any cause: 1:117
- Being struck in a non-sexual assault: 1:213
- Being bit or stung: 1:265
- Being diagnosed with Chlamydia: 1:392
- Dying from Heart Disease 1:397
- Being injured as a cyclist: 1:417
- Being injured in a fire: 1:510
- Dying from Cancer: 1:511
- Being diagnosed with Gonorrhea: 1:767
- Being bitten by a dog: 1:797
- Suffering a non-fatal poisoning: 1:823
- Being injured in a machinery accident: 1:833
- Dying from being overweight or obese: 1:918
- Being injured in a motorcycle accident: 1:1,395
- Self-harm poisoning: 1:1,617
- Dying from Stroke: 1:1,699
- Being stabbed or cut in a non-sexual assault: 1:2,255
- Dying from Respiratory Disease: 1:2,313
- Dying from All accidents: 1:3,014
- Being injured by a firearm: 1:3,637
- Dying from Diabetes: 1:4,072
- Being injured in a reported sexual assault: 1:4,302
- Dying from Influenza & Pneumonia: 1:4,320
- Being injured as a result of law enforcement actions: 1:4,348
- Dying from Alzheimer's: 1:5,752
- Dying from Alcohol (direct & liver disease): 1:6,210
- Dying from Auto accidents: 1: 6,745
- Dying from Kidney Failure: 1:7,575
- Being diagnosed with Salmonellosis: 1:8,596
- Dying from Septiciemia: 1:9,037
- Dying from a gunshot: 1:9,604
- Dying from Liver disease: 1:9,749
- Dying from Suicide: 1:12,091
- Being injured by a BB gun: 1:12,992
- Being diagnosed with Hepatitis A: 1:13,488
- Dying from Poisoning: 1: 13,547
- Dying from Hypertension: 1:14,323
- Dying from Homicide: 1:15,440
- Being diagnosed with Lyme's disease: 1:15,525
- Dying from Pneumonitis: 1:15,560
- Dying from Aortic aneurysm: 1:16,373
- Dying from Parkinson's: 1:16,506
- Being diagnosed with Tuberculosis: 1:16,808
- Dying from HIV: 1:17,879
- Dying from Atherosclerosis: 1:17,985
- Dying from Perinatal Period: 1:18,399
- Dying from Falling: 1:19,659
- Being diagnosed with Shigellosis: 21,620
- Dying from Suffocation: 1: 22,753
- Being diagnosed with Group A Strep (incl. toxic shock): 1:31,280
- Being diagnosed with Pertussis: 1:34,990
- Dying from solar radiation induced Melanoma: 1:35,291
- Being diagnosed with Syphilis: 1:46,039
- Dying from Pedestrian accidents: 1:48,894
- Being diagnosed with Hepatitis B: 1:55,000 (very approx.)
- Dying from Food Poisoning: 1:56,424
- Dying from Drowning: 1:64,031
- Dying from Fire: 1:82,977
- Dying from 9-11 terrorism: 1:86,284
- Dying from Adverse effects of medical care: 1: 98,169
- Being diagnosed with Meningococcal disease: 1:122,015
- Dying from Washington snipers (resident in Montgomery County, MD): 1: 145,557
- Being diagnosed with Malaria: 1:176,452
- Dying from Group A Strep (incl. toxic shock): 1:275,266
- Dying from an unintentional gunshot: 1:354,724
- Dying from Bicycle Accident: 1:376,165
- Dying from Machinery operations: 1: 407,198
- Being diagnosed with Typhoid fever: 1:730,149
- Dying as a result of law enforcement actions: 1:766,758
- Being diagnosed with the Mumps: 1:814,396
- Dying from Adverse drug effects: 1:1,079,475
- Dying in an airplane crash: 1:1,100,000
- Being diagnosed with Rubella: 1:1,564,011
- Being diagnosed with Tularemia: 1:1,938,493
- Being diagnosed with Toxic Shock Syndrome: 1:2,039,007
- Being diagnosed with Measles: 1:3,200,000
- Dying from Lightning: 1:4,478,159
- Contracting Hantavirus: 1:6,713,805
- Being diagnosed with Tetanus: 1:7,864,743
- Contracting West Nile virus: 1:13,107,904
- Being diagnosed with Trichinosis: 1:17,204,125
- Dying from Overexertion: 1: 21,174,308
- Dying from Washington snipers (resident anywhere in US): 1: 22,938,833
- Being diagnosed with Bubonic Plague: 1:45,877,667
- Dying from Tetanus: 1:45,877,667
- Dying from Anthrax terrorism: 1:56,424,800
- Dying from Toxic Shock Syndrome: 1:91,755,333
- Dying from West Nile virus: 1:137,633,000
US Population divided by number of annual events for the year 2000 (except for terrorism and sniping). Sources: CDC WisQaRS system, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, calculated for all ages.
Obviously this is a gross first cut that is highly unstable (insignificant figures were included). Risks depend on circumstance - your chances are much smaller of dying in a motorcycle accident if you are an infant, and you are less likely to be struck by lightning if you never go outdoors or do not live in central Florida. However, if you are over 18, and like riding morocycles in thunderstorms around Orlando, then you are somewhere high up on the table with a whole different set of numbers. But the table gives a good first idea of the order in which you should be concerned about things: eat right, exercise regularly, drink responsibly, and drive carefully. Thanks Mom. Turn over the lottery ticket you just bought, look at the odds, and place them in the table. Now repeat after me: "sucker." It also tells me that America is FAT. But I knew that - just ride the bus and you'll see. Yikes.
